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The need to share homes
Over the next decade or so, our cities will swell almost unimaginably. By 2030, New York City is expected to host about 20 million people, Shanghai to rise to 31 million, and Tokyo to an astonishing 38. In fact, by the fourth decade of the 21st century, 70 percent of the world population will be "urbanites", which represents an increase of just over 50% compared to the current situation.
Almost 800 million inhabitants will be living in only 41 megacities (Classified with more than 10 million inhabitants) as indicated by the following graph:
You can access it from HERE and see the forecast evolution from 1950 to 2030.
This trend is not only occurring in the developed world; 90 percent of urban population growth is expected to occur in Africa and Asia. However, no matter where it occurs, rapid urbanization is not without its consequences.
As increasing numbers of people move in search of a better life, our cities will fill with people. And as urban space becomes scarcer and the cost of housing rises, billions of people will struggle to find a suitable and affordable place to live.
Why the world is changing rapidly
We want to make a reflection from a global perspective showing the "key points" of unstoppable changes that affect us all and that the United Nations does not stop warning us in its sustainable development objectives (More information on the objectives HERE).
1.- Urbanism is accelerating
For the next one 2050, 70% of the world's population will live in cities. In 1950, the number was 30%.
Here the sustainable cities index will come into play to see if we are really doing things right. We can consult HERE.
Most of us were born into a world of countries, but by the time we leave this planet, it will basically be a world made up of 600 pretty powerful cities. The rapid urbanization of the past decades is just the beginning of an ever steeper growth curve. By 2050, the proportion of people living in urban areas will have risen to 70 percent.
Over the next 40 years, the volume of urban construction for housing, workspaces, and infrastructure could almost equal the total volume of such construction to date.
Our urban environments already have a serious impact on our mental and physical health, so … What happens when our cities get even more crowded?.
2.- Demographic changes
The 41% of India's population is under the age of 20 (Census - 2016). In the next decade, we will see explosive population growth in some countries and a decline in others.. In the developed world, we will see an aging population and slow population growth.
Other societies are young and fast-growing, with far-reaching effects including new, broader consumer markets, increasing pressure on the supply of critical resources, and radical changes in people's personal and social goals and aspirations.
More people will have to be fed, housed, educated and employed for the productive potential to materialize.
3.- Political and economic changes
The world population is expected to increase by 2.5 billion people by 2050, to almost 10 billion people. Increasingly, these people will lift themselves out of poverty and into the new world class of urban consumers..
Over the past decade, we have seen shifts in the balance of global economic power from West to East, as well as the growth of the middle classes in emerging economies, where living standards and purchasing power are improving.
We are witnessing a reduction in poverty, better health care, a higher level of education, the strengthening of women's rights and the widespread use of new communication technologies.
As a result, individual empowerment will accelerate substantially over the next 15 to 20 years, and of course, business will be in the big cities.
4.- Lack of natural resources
In the In the next 15 years, the world will need 50% more energy, 40% more drinking water and 35% more food.
In 2030, there will be almost 8.3 billion people in the world. Combined with the consumption patterns of an expanding middle class, the demand for resources will grow substantially.
Unfortunately, climate change is likely to worsen many people's access to these critical resources. It's simple: we can't keep up with consumption through our planet's finite resources. All the evidence suggests that if we continue at our current rate, we will soon need a second planet.
5.- Technological advances
The number of people connected directly or indirectly to the Internet will soon approach 100% according to Scientific American by the CIFS.
The pace of technological change is increasing exponentially. The perpetual flow of ideas and innovations creates increasingly powerful enabling technologies, where potential user scenarios are limited only by human imagination.
Indeed, technology and data are affecting cities as we show in the article on cities and Big Data.
Every hour of every day, advances at the frontiers of research and development, ranging from artificial intelligence and big data to automation and new digital business models, are transforming our world.
Technological advancements are having a constant and significant impact on the size and shape of the world's high-tech and manufacturing sectors and are also creating entirely new industries, constantly offering new opportunities for both companies and individuals.
It is much easier, for example, to be able to share a home with people like oneself or to be able to find new housing opportunities for purchase or rent, or new ideas for coexistence.
And now … what happens?
While the above points are rapidly unfolding, we are simply not building enough homes to meet global demand. In fact, to house 10 billion people, we need to build a city the size of New York every two months for the next 35 years … Is it a problem that politicians or administrations are beginning to tackle?
It's hard to imagine penniless governments solving the housing crisis through large-scale projects. So that… Shouldn't we consider how to better use existing infrastructure to develop more suitable spaces for these new urban dwellers in cities? And if so… . Could coexistence provide a solution?
The image above belongs to the guide article on guidelines for sustainable cities that we need to implement.
With ordinary people struggling to find affordable accommodation, shared spaces - be it homes, offices … etc - have grown in popularity, particularly in large cities. The perfect examples like Paris, London, Madrid, Barcelona or New York … etc, where the housing crisis is especially acute.
Thus it is not surprising that The Economist considers that "Coexistence is for hipsters not for hippies" or that companies reinvent the idea of roommates as recounted in the Guardian article…. "Although people have lived with roommates for a long time, what we are doing is simply taking this way of life and improving it since in many cases it is no longer an option, it is rather an obligation"
Beyond the economic factor
Yet it is not just the lack of affordable housing that drives young people to live together. Many seek a more sociable lifestyle, but rather an antidote to loneliness.. According to a 2011 study, 86 percent of millennials reported feeling lonely and depressed. (See article on boring urbanism and how it affects people)
By 2015, a study found that 18-24 year olds were four times more likely to feel lonely all the time than those over 70. And according to research recently presented at the annual convention of the American Psychological Association … "Loneliness and social isolation may pose a greater danger to public health than obesity, and their impact has been growing and will continue."
Another issue is that there are also cultural factors to consider. In low- and middle-income countries, single-occupied households are the fastest growing group of households. And as in the West, young people - who traditionally could have lived at home until they were married - today want to live the single life in the big city, away from their family. However, many of these new urbanites do not want to live alone, nor in many cases, can they afford it.
And of course, there is another important reason why so manymillennials they have embraced coexistence. Yours is a generation that has grown up sharing almost every aspect of their life through social media, a generation accustomed to sharing photos, gif.webps, stories, memories … etc, a generation accustomed to spaces to share and work together.
It seems that living together could be the solution to urbanization, loneliness and the lack of affordable housing… Is it time to start sharing?
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