Electric buses are hurting the oil industry
We can all recognize that China is a country of contrasts and in many ways, of radical changes. Its energy transition towards renewables is causing different reactions around the world, some more positive and others less, but it should be noted that its efforts, given the size of the country, affect in many directions and in this case, the new fleets of electric buses that are being incorporated en masse over the hundreds of Chinese cities for the benefit of improving air quality are affecting the oil industry, although not even the experts could predict it.
Actually, seven years ago, the electric bus was seen as a joke at an industry conference in Belgium, when Chinese manufacturer BYD Co showed off a first-time model … "Everybody laughed at BYD for making a toy"recalls Isbrand Ho, CEO of the Shenzhen-based company in Europe. And look now. Everybody wants one. "
If we look at the numbers … We are amazed! China is the world's largest producer of electric buses. And furthermore, domestic demand in China is strongly driven by national sales targets, supporting subsidies, and municipal targets to improve air pollution in its cities.
Chinese cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen have stopped buying buses with internal combustion engines and are only buying electric ones. As a result, China has about 99% of the approximately 385,000 electric buses on the world's roads. (It represents only 17% of the entire fleet in the country).
Electric bus sales in China jumped from 69,000 units in 2015, to 132,000 units in 2016. In 2022, sales were slightly lower than the previous year as a result of cuts in subsidies.
"Every five weeks, Chinese cities add about 9,500 zero-emission public electric buses, the equivalent of London's entire active fleet"
If these buses were deployed one by one, the fare would be broken down into about 271 new electric buses each day, or one bus every 5.3 minutes, spread over several cities.
The new ones zero emission public vehicles that by joining Chinese cities are producing a palpable reduction in fuel demand (On average, in a city, a bus consumes about 30 times more fuel than a medium-size car).
In the following graph, we see the amount of electric and hybrid buses we have in Europe …
We believe that the summary of the previous graph is… No comment!
For For every 1,000 electric buses that circulate on the roads, about 500 barrels of diesel per day are displaced from the market, according to BNEF calculations.
This year, the volume of fuel that will not be needed could increase by up to 37%, representing some 279,000 barrels a day, and all thanks to electric transport, including cars and light trucks, almost as much oil as Greece consumes, according to BNEF. The buses represent around 233,000 barrels of the total.
The following graph frames the global demand for fuel displaced by electric buses:
According to the head of transport of the investigation unit Bloomberg, in London…. “This market is approaching a tipping point. City governments around the world are being reprimanded for poor urban air quality. This pressure will not go away and sales of public electric buses will obviously increase ».
According to the calculations of the main manufacturer of electric buses in China. Its buses have traveled 17 billion kilometers and saved 6.8 billion liters of fuel since they began transporting passengers around the world's busiest cities. Sum, around 18 million tons of carbon dioxide pollution avoided, which is equivalent to about 3.8 million cars produced each year.
Remember two articles of interest, the 8 Strategies to further accelerate the energy efficiency of buildings in cities and what we will do with all solar panels when they end their useful life.
- Reference report HERE.
- Reference article HERE.
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