Why food will be more expensive if we don't change our mindset
The publication Special Report on Climate Change and Land last week written by 107 experts from 52 countries by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC - United Nations Agency since 1988) we just took a good smack to see if we wake up and start getting serious about global food production.
Unlike most other documents on the environment or climate change, the IPCC does not focus primarily on the consumption of fossil fuels, the main source of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, but on managing from the earth.
And while greenhouse gas emissions are central to any report on climate change, this "special report" examines other critical factors, in particular the planet's ability to feed itself.
Why are we going to have a shortage of food?
In broad strokes, the report details how climate change is already threatening the supply of food and water for humans: turning arable land into desert (desertification); degrading the soil; increasing the threat of droughts, floods and other meteorological phenomena.
A combination of factors that seriously threatens crops and, by effect, the planet's food supply at a time when the world population is growing at an unstoppable rate (currently 7.7 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050).
But, to better understand what is happening with "food security" we will have to look at the following graphs worldwide …
1.- We need more food
The Earth is increasingly populated (the estimate, at the end of this century could exceed 11,000 million people) and therefore, more food is needed, which is undoubtedly linked to agricultural production.
Currently, 25 to 30% of the total food produced is lost or wasted, according to the IPCC report.
2.- Increase in emissions from agriculture
The accompanying graph of the report states that 23% of all greenhouse gases expelled by man come from agriculture, forestry and land use.
In addition, if emissions associated with world food production are added, that share can reach up to 37%.
See also interesting article on why concrete is the most destructive material on earth from an environmental perspective.
3.- What uses does the land have?
We increasingly need to use more land to produce more food with the problem that it is not being used in a sustainable way, affecting natural ecosystems.
4.- Agricultural production
Land use change and rapid intensification of land use have contributed to increased food, feed and fiber production.
Since 1961, total food production (cereal crops) has increased by 240% (until 2022) due to the expansion of land area and increased yields. The production of fibers (cotton) increased 162% (until 2013).
To have a higher production, the use of fertilizers has been triggered like water. About 70% of the world's freshwater consumption goes to agriculture.
Around 70% of the world's freshwater consumption is used for agriculture
5.- Desertification and land degradation
According to the report, climate change with agricultural intensification is contributing to an acceleration of desertification and land degradation globally.
Point 1 of the super ascending graph is the population by areas affected by desertification and point 3, which is in decline, the extension of continental wetlands. Clearer, impossible!
Of interest, from this article to see the interactive cartographic tool to study climate change.
6.- Everything is related
Land provides the main basis for human livelihood and well-being including the supply of food, fresh water and many other ecosystem services, as well as biodiversity.
Human use of land directly affects more than 70% (between 69-76%) of the world's ice-free land surface. And it also plays an important role in the climate system.
If we see the following two graphs, the symbiosis relationship is there …
And the relationship between climatic shocks and increases in food prices can be identified in the following scheme …
According to the authors of the report (here access part of the IPCC report on "food security"), it is increasingly difficult to produce food in the face of increasing droughts, forest fires, heat waves, floods and melting permafrost.
If to this, we add the increasing amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which decrease the quality of the food that is produced, it is clear that we are heading towards a future in which there is even less food to distribute, which means that the foods that are available will cost more.
We are heading into a future where there is even less food to hand out, and what is available will cost more
"One particular danger is that food crises could unfold on multiple continents at once," said Cynthia Rosenzweig, principal investigator at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and a lead author of the report.
And to confirm the connection. The report leaves us with different maps to see the interrelationships worldwide …
The IPCC highlights that climate change is already having an impact on "food security" as precipitation patterns are changing and the frequency and intensity of extreme events that damage crops are increasing.
The projections are not good for Spain … "The frequency and intensity of droughts is expected to increase particularly in the Mediterranean region and southern Africa." Take note!
And another of the important consequences that was already commented on in this other report published by the UN Human Rights Council, will be the increase in the difference between developed and not developed countries.
The strongest economies will be able to invest in trying to mitigate the environmental impacts in their territories while the weakened economies will have serious problems (See complementary article on why combating climate change puts developing countries in debt).
As will the gap between rich and poor that will become even more different, as many people will be left without the means to escape the worst effects of the climate crisis (By the way, they call this "Climate apartheid").
This will increase a flow of immigration that is already redefining politics in North America, Europe and other parts of the world… »People's lives will be affected by massive pressure for migration»
But… Can we do something to start improving? Yes, and the IPCC report itself proposes a strategic table of objectives with priorities that should be applied from now on …
The report raises the need for a rapid response to the challenge of climate change … "Delaying action (…) could lead to some irreversible impacts." And this in turn would generate more greenhouse gases that would further warm the planet. A global focus on sustainability, coupled with early action, offers the best opportunities to tackle climate change.
By the way, at the time we already talked about how diet affects climate change by a report issued by the FAO.
Article references:
- The full report Special Report on Climate Change and Land (There are several PDF documents in English)
- ElPaís article.
- Article Land Use the Subject of Latest IPCC Report.
- Article "Climate Apartheid" Is Imminent. Only the Rich Will Survive.
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