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What will be the future of renewables in the next 25 years
Predicting the future has always been a fun action or intuition but we can understand that great changes are coming in the energy sector in the coming years, and more, if we talk about the renewable energy sector or from its fierce competitors; Coal, nuclear or gas.
We have everywhere hundreds of reports and graphs that explain and demonstrate the progress of one energy or another (Example of articles; Five graphs show that solar energy takes over the world or the evolution of wind energy) but we can count on our fingers those who enter the energy future.
What will happen to renewables or which countries will be at the head of an energy system. In this sense, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (a global investment finance company, among other things) has presented a captivating report and that, in our opinion, the interactive part of presenting the most essential data on the portal is worthy of a revision.
The report identifies five major changes in the energy sector that will take place between now and 2040:
- Solar energy everywhere. The biggest decrease in the cost of photovoltaic technology will drive it to an increase of $ 3.7 Trillion of investments in the world dedicated to solar energy, both large and small scale.
- THE power of the people. About $ 2.2 Trillion will end up on rooftops or other photovoltaic systems that will give consumers and companies the ability to generate their own electricity, storing it with batteries, and energy can reach where it never did.
- Demand insufficient items. The march of technologies that apply energy efficiency in different areas, such as lighting or air conditioning, will help limit the growth of world energy demand to 1.8% per year, down from 3% per year between 1990- 2012. In OECD countries, energy demand will be lower in 2040 than in 2014.
- Gas flares. Natural gas will not be the "transition fuel" in the shadow of coal. Shale gas in North America is going to change the energy market, but only in America, the transition from coal to gas will be a particular story for the United States as many developing nations will opt for a double life of energy, that of coal and renewable.
- Climate change will remain in danger. Despite the investment of $ 8 Trillion in renewable energy, there will continue to be a significant investment in the coal sector mainly in developing countries that will ensure an increase in global CO2 emissions until approximately 2029, there will still be 13% above the levels indicated for 2014.
The main reason for the big change in the energy generationThis is probably not due to a climate deal, future national policies, or potential coal price turmoil.The change will actually be reduced to the most powerful word "money" and its intention to multiply it in a forceful way based on economic benefits that fossil fuel will not be able to generate.It is necessary to highlight three economic milestones that will break the traditional molds in the electricity sector:
Three economic keys to the renewable sector
Globally, $ 12.2 Trillion will be invested in the new energy generation
Since 2004, Investments in renewable energy has increased from $ 43 Billion to $ 270 Billion in 2014, most of that money was contributed by China, a pattern that is expected to continue until 2040.
The world is going to invest many millions inpower generation capacity in the next 25 years. The majority - two-thirds to be exact - will go to renewables like wind and solar thanks to constantly falling costs.
The constant generation of jobs will generate a significant economic flow of capital, direct and indirect. Currently, renewables generate 7.7 million jobs worldwide.
Renewable energies will represent 60% of energy production worldwide
Energy production capacity in 2040 will be more than double that of today. Of the new generation of additional energy, 60% will come from renewable energies.
The fossil fuels currently account for about two-thirds of all power generation capacity, the rest is derived from renewables and nuclear. The rapid rise in renewables will essentially turn the script around and fossil fuels will now account for only a third of power generation capacity. before the world in the year 2040.
In 2026 renewables will mark the transition to a definitely cheap market.
The first milestone to favor this date is that in 2026 the wind will become the cheapest form of power generation in the world. Unmarked in 2030 for a generation of solar panels with high efficiency and technology. (Costs for solar power projects have fallen 59 percent since 2009, while costs in the onshore wind sector have fallen 11.5% during the same time.)
It may be that the report dares to forecast a totally uncertain future and more so in such a changing world, but the reality is that we are facing an unprecedented energy revolution, which we are experiencing today, although many leaders insist on putting on a blindfold.
Item benchmarks:
- Bloomberg New Energy Finance
- Executive summary and access to the report (To obtain the Report, fill in the form and an executive summary will be sent in PDF)
- Interactive data (Very interesting - You have to click on «>» to access)
- Climatecentral.org
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